Running Count vs True Count: The Key Skill That Separates Amateurs from Pros
Why you must convert to true count in shoe games, and how to do it fast without mental strain.
- Running count tracks imbalance; true count scales it to the number of decks remaining.
- True count is the number you use for betting decisions and most deviation charts.
- Estimating decks remaining is a learnable skill; you can get “good enough” quickly.
- The goal is consistent conversions that hold up under table speed.
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Why running count alone misleads you
A running count is a raw total. It tells you the direction of deck composition, but not its intensity. In a shoe game, the same running count can represent a huge edge or a tiny edge depending on how many decks remain.
If you bet big on running count alone, you will overbet early shoes and underbet late shoes. Both mistakes reduce EV and increase risk.
True count fixes that by normalizing the count. It makes your decisions comparable across different moments of the shoe.
How to estimate decks remaining
You do not need a laser measurement. You need a usable estimate. A simple approach: learn what a half-deck looks like in the discard tray, then count in half-decks or full decks as the tray fills.
If you’re new, start with full decks: “about 5 decks left,” “about 3 decks left,” and so on. As you get comfortable, refine to half decks.
Consistency is more important than perfection. The goal is that your estimate is close enough most of the time to keep your betting zones accurate.
True count conversion you can do quickly
True count = running count ÷ decks remaining. You don’t need long division: use friendly approximations. If you have +8 with 2 decks left, that’s +4. If you have +6 with 3 decks left, that’s +2.
For half-decks, you can still approximate: +7 with 2.5 decks left is around +3 (because 7/2.5 ≈ 2.8). Rounding is fine because betting decisions are usually made in integer steps.
Practice conversions away from the table so they become automatic. That’s what removes mental strain.
How true count connects to betting and deviations
Betting ramps are typically based on true count thresholds (for example: TC ≤ 0 = minimum; TC +1 = small raise; TC +3 = bigger raise). Deviation charts also use true count to decide when a non-basic play becomes profitable.
If your true count is wrong, your bet sizes are wrong. That’s why pros treat true count as a core skill, not an optional bonus.
Once you can convert without thinking, everything else becomes easier.
Drill plan
Step 1: run through shoes and keep running count stable. Step 2: stop at random points and estimate decks remaining. Step 3: say the true count out loud. Step 4: decide your bet size based on your ramp.
This is exactly the kind of progression the BlackjackTeacher course is built around: learn → drill → test. If you want the structured path, start with the free lesson.
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