Index Plays (Deviations) for Beginners: What They Are and Which Ones Matter
Understand deviations, why they exist, and which handful move the needle most once your basics are automatic.
- A deviation is a non-basic-strategy play that becomes correct at certain true counts.
- Most value comes from a small set of high-impact deviations; you don’t need 100 indexes to improve.
- You must have stable true count accuracy before adding deviations.
- Treat deviations as a layer on top of basic strategy, not a replacement.
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What a deviation is
Basic strategy assumes an average deck. But when the deck is unusually rich in high cards or low cards, the EV of certain plays changes. A deviation is the play that becomes best when the true count crosses a threshold.
Example concept: standing on a stiff hand might become better at higher counts because the dealer is more likely to have a strong hand but also more likely to bust with certain compositions. The exact play depends on the index.
Deviations are “conditional upgrades.” They help you squeeze extra EV once your foundation is strong.
Why betting is still the main driver
It’s important to keep expectations realistic. Betting with the count usually produces most of the advantage. Deviations add incremental EV, and they can also reduce variance in some spots.
So if your betting ramp is wrong or your true count is inconsistent, deviations won’t save you. They can even hurt you if misapplied.
That’s why the best training sequence is: basic strategy → counting → true count → betting ramp → deviations.
Which deviations matter first
A practical approach is to learn a small set first—often the most common and impactful ones in shoe games. Then expand slowly. The exact list depends on your rules and counting system.
As you progress, you’ll find that certain spots repeat constantly. Those are the best candidates for early deviations: hands you see often and decisions that swing EV meaningfully.
The right first list is the one you can execute perfectly.
How to learn deviations without overload
Use spaced repetition. Learn one deviation, drill it for a week, then add another. Do not try to cram a full chart at once.
Also, anchor each deviation to a story: “At higher counts, tens are more likely, so I do X.” The reasoning helps memory and reduces errors.
Most importantly: do not add deviations until you can keep count under pressure.
Next step
If you want to focus on fundamentals that immediately improve results, revisit basic strategy and true count conversions. If you want the full structured learning path, the course phases are built to add layers at the right time.
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