Hi-Lo Card Counting Explained: The Easiest Winning Count for Beginners

Card counting works because blackjack odds change with deck composition. High cards (10s and Aces) help the player more than the dealer: they increase blackjack frequency (3:2 payout) and make doubling/splitting more profitable. Low cards help the dealer because they reduce dealer busts and help the dealer complete hands safely.

You are not predicting the next card. You are estimating whether the remaining undealt cards are richer in highs or lows compared to normal. That estimate tells you when your edge is positive.

A good count does two things: (1) it tells you when to bet more, and (2) it sets up deviations later. Most of the value comes from betting, not fancy plays.

In Hi-Lo, you assign a value to each card as it comes out: 2–6 = +1, 7–9 = 0, 10–Ace = -1. Start at zero. Add the tag of each revealed card to your running count.

If lots of small cards come out, the running count rises. That implies the remaining cards are richer in tens and Aces. If lots of tens and Aces come out early, the count drops, implying fewer high cards remain.

Your job is to keep the running count accurate through distraction, conversation, and table speed.

In multi-deck games, a running count of +6 means different things depending on how many decks remain. With one deck left, +6 is huge. With six decks left, +6 is mild. That is why you use true count: divide running count by estimated decks remaining.

Example: running count +8 with about 2 decks remaining is a true count of +4. That’s a meaningful advantage zone in many games.

You do not need perfect deck estimation at first. You need consistent estimation. Being slightly off sometimes matters less than being calm and stable.

Counting is a bankroll game. Your edge is small per hand, so you need controlled bet sizing. The basic concept: minimum bet at neutral or negative counts; increase bets only when true count is positive and your edge is real.

Beginners often overbet because it’s exciting. That’s how you get crushed by variance. A safer approach is to start with a conservative spread, make sure your count accuracy is high, then scale.

For a full bankroll plan, read: bet sizing and bankroll management.

First, master basic strategy. Counting on top of sloppy strategy is like upgrading your engine while your tires are flat.

Second, drill running count stability. Use a single-deck walk-through: flip cards, say the tag, update the count. Then increase speed.

Third, add true count conversions. Start slow. The goal is not speed on day one—it is correct repetition that becomes fast later.