Common Card Counting Mistakes (and the Fixes That Instantly Improve You)
The error list that quietly destroys EV: drifting counts, sloppy true count conversions, and emotional bet sizing.
- Most beginners lose EV through small, repeated execution errors—not because the system “doesn’t work.”
- True count conversion consistency matters more than perfect math.
- Emotional bet sizing (pressing after wins or chasing after losses) breaks the advantage model.
- You fix mistakes fastest by drilling in increasing levels of distraction and speed.
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Mistake 1: letting the count drift
A drifting count happens when you miss a card, double-count a card, or lose track during a fast round. One small error can compound because every later value depends on the current count.
Fix: slow down your practice and focus on accuracy. Then build speed. Accuracy first, always.
At the table, give yourself micro-checks: after a round, quickly recap the tags you saw and confirm your running count feels consistent.
Mistake 2: confusing running count with true count
Using running count to bet in shoe games is one of the biggest leaks. It makes you bet too big too early and too small too late.
Fix: drill conversions. Make it a reflex: count → decks remaining → true count → bet.
Start with whole decks. When comfortable, move to half-decks. Consistency is the goal.
Mistake 3: betting with emotions
Pressing after wins feels natural. So does chasing after losses. But those patterns are unrelated to advantage. Your bet size must be linked to true count, not mood.
Fix: write your betting ramp down (mentally or on a note if legal and subtle) and follow it. If you can’t follow it calmly, reduce your spread.
A smaller spread you can execute beats a big spread you can’t execute.
Mistake 4: adding deviations too soon
Deviations are valuable, but only after basic strategy and counting accuracy are stable. If you try to memorize a long index list while your count is still shaky, you’ll misapply plays and lose EV.
Fix: get perfect basic strategy first, then counting stability, then add a small set of high-impact deviations.
See: index plays for beginners.
Mistake 5: ignoring table conditions
Even perfect counting can underperform in terrible conditions: shallow penetration, 6:5 payouts, constant shuffles, or disruptive side bets and distractions.
Fix: become a table selector. Good table selection multiplies the value of your skills.
See: shoe games and penetration, and choosing the best tables.
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